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Tuesday, February 14, 2012

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Source: http://www.luxurybeddinghub.info/?p=1931

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Practice makes perfect, but not when it comes to decisions about risk

Public release date: 13-Feb-2012
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Contact: James Devitt
james.devitt@nyu.edu
212-998-6808
New York University

People aren't always good at making informed decisions that involve risk, but a new study shows that even when we know the likelihood of certain outcomes based on statistical evidence or our own experiences, we still make decisions at odds with the probability of their occurrence. The study, conducted by researchers at New York University and Universit Paris Descartes, appears in the journal Psychological Science.

Psychology research on risk and decision-making often employs questions about gamblingwhere information about probabilities is given explicitly in numerical form. For instance, in experiments, participants may be asked, "Would you rather have a 50:50 chance of winning $100 or otherwise $0, or would you rather just take $40?" The consensus in the field is that decision makers, confronted with such possibilities, make poor decisions. They do not maximize their possible winnings and sometimes their choices are logically inconsistent with one another.

In everyday life, though, we are rarely given explicit estimates of probability. Therefore, what probability information people have is based primarily on their own past experience. In fact, researchers in several laboratories have conjectured that, when information about probability is learned through experience, people make better decisions.

The researchers at NYU and Universit Paris Descartes wanted to test this claim. In the Psychological Science study, participants first played a video game that included firing computerized bullets at different-sized rectangles on the screen. The game was set up so the bullets took a zig-zagging trajectory and, as a result, often missed their target. This meant the chances of hitting a rectangle increased with its sizeit was simply easier to strike a bigger target, and participants gradually learned the link between rectangle size and probability.

Following training, the researchers compared performance in two different decision tasks. The first was a "classical" decision task where participants chose between alternatives with probabilities of different outcomes given explicitly. The participant always chose between a larger probability of getting $1 and a smaller probability of getting $2. In the second (decision from experience), though, they saw two rectangle targets differing in size. They were told that the larger target was worth $1 if they hit it while the smallerand harder to hittarget was worth $2. The experimenters adjusted the size of the larger rectangle so that the participant's probability of hitting it was matched to the larger probability in the "classical" task. They adjusted the size of the smaller rectangle so that the participant's probability of hitting it was identical to the smaller probability in the "classical" task. As a result, the motor and classical decision tasks were mathematically identical.

Despite hundreds of trials of training, participants were still markedly sub-optimal in the decision-from-experience task. They showed the same kind of misuse of probability as found in typical decision tasks with probabilities explicitly given in numerical form. In summary, practice alone isn't enough to get people to make good decisions based on risk, explained Laurence Maloney, a professor in NYU's Center for Neural Science and Department of Psychology, one of the study's co-authors.

"You could imagine taking someone and saying, well, let's practice them over and over and over again until they're experts and maybe their decision-making will be perfect," he said, adding that's not what happened in his experiment. "Basically, the key idea is that people have a distorted appreciation of probability, and it doesn't go away even when you become one of the world's experts at shooting rectangles."

###
The study's other co-authors were: Craig Glaser, a doctoral student in NYU's Department of Psychology; Julia Trommershuser, a post-doctoral fellow in NYU's Center for Neural Science; and Pascal Mamassian of CNRS and Universit Paris Descartes.

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Practice makes perfect, but not when it comes to decisions about risk Public release date: 13-Feb-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]
Contact: James Devitt
james.devitt@nyu.edu
212-998-6808
New York University

People aren't always good at making informed decisions that involve risk, but a new study shows that even when we know the likelihood of certain outcomes based on statistical evidence or our own experiences, we still make decisions at odds with the probability of their occurrence. The study, conducted by researchers at New York University and Universit Paris Descartes, appears in the journal Psychological Science.

Psychology research on risk and decision-making often employs questions about gamblingwhere information about probabilities is given explicitly in numerical form. For instance, in experiments, participants may be asked, "Would you rather have a 50:50 chance of winning $100 or otherwise $0, or would you rather just take $40?" The consensus in the field is that decision makers, confronted with such possibilities, make poor decisions. They do not maximize their possible winnings and sometimes their choices are logically inconsistent with one another.

In everyday life, though, we are rarely given explicit estimates of probability. Therefore, what probability information people have is based primarily on their own past experience. In fact, researchers in several laboratories have conjectured that, when information about probability is learned through experience, people make better decisions.

The researchers at NYU and Universit Paris Descartes wanted to test this claim. In the Psychological Science study, participants first played a video game that included firing computerized bullets at different-sized rectangles on the screen. The game was set up so the bullets took a zig-zagging trajectory and, as a result, often missed their target. This meant the chances of hitting a rectangle increased with its sizeit was simply easier to strike a bigger target, and participants gradually learned the link between rectangle size and probability.

Following training, the researchers compared performance in two different decision tasks. The first was a "classical" decision task where participants chose between alternatives with probabilities of different outcomes given explicitly. The participant always chose between a larger probability of getting $1 and a smaller probability of getting $2. In the second (decision from experience), though, they saw two rectangle targets differing in size. They were told that the larger target was worth $1 if they hit it while the smallerand harder to hittarget was worth $2. The experimenters adjusted the size of the larger rectangle so that the participant's probability of hitting it was matched to the larger probability in the "classical" task. They adjusted the size of the smaller rectangle so that the participant's probability of hitting it was identical to the smaller probability in the "classical" task. As a result, the motor and classical decision tasks were mathematically identical.

Despite hundreds of trials of training, participants were still markedly sub-optimal in the decision-from-experience task. They showed the same kind of misuse of probability as found in typical decision tasks with probabilities explicitly given in numerical form. In summary, practice alone isn't enough to get people to make good decisions based on risk, explained Laurence Maloney, a professor in NYU's Center for Neural Science and Department of Psychology, one of the study's co-authors.

"You could imagine taking someone and saying, well, let's practice them over and over and over again until they're experts and maybe their decision-making will be perfect," he said, adding that's not what happened in his experiment. "Basically, the key idea is that people have a distorted appreciation of probability, and it doesn't go away even when you become one of the world's experts at shooting rectangles."

###
The study's other co-authors were: Craig Glaser, a doctoral student in NYU's Department of Psychology; Julia Trommershuser, a post-doctoral fellow in NYU's Center for Neural Science; and Pascal Mamassian of CNRS and Universit Paris Descartes.

[ | E-mail | Share ]
?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-02/nyu-pmp021312.php
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Monday, February 13, 2012

Oil near $100 as Greece approves austerity cuts (AP)

SINGAPORE ? Oil prices rose to near $100 a barrel Monday in Asia after the Greek parliament approved new austerity measures that should secure a bailout and avoid bankruptcy.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was up 88 cents at $99.55 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.17 to settle at $98.67 on Friday.

Brent crude was up 33 cents at $117.64 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.

The vote by Greek lawmakers ? which came as rioters in central Athens torched buildings, looted shops and clashed with riot police ? paves the way for Greece's European partners and the International Monetary Fund to release $170 billion (euro130 billion) in new rescue loans.

Without the bailout, Greece likely would default on its debt next month and leave the eurozone ? a scenario that would have roiled global markets.

Oil prices have hovered near $100 for the last few months as signs of an improving U.S. economy bolstered investor confidence. However, the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence fell in February, and some analysts are blaming higher gasoline prices.

"The problem is that gasoline prices have recently jumped and this appears to have more than offset the positive developments," Capital Economics said in a report.

Some analysts expect weak global economic growth this year will push prices lower. The International Energy Agency said Friday that global oil demand will likely grow less than 1 percent this year.

"To be bullish from here, one would need to believe a supply disruption is coming," Morgan Stanley said in a report. "With fundamentals weakening, we believe that any further upside is unlikely without a supply shock."

In other energy trading, heating oil was up 3 cents at $3.21 per gallon and gasoline futures added 3.1 cents at $3.01 per gallon. Natural gas slid 5 cents to $2.43 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/energy/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20120213/ap_on_re_as/oil_prices

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Venezuelans: Will Chavez's challenger pose threat?

This combo of file photos shows Venezuela's presidential opposition candidates on the ballot for the country's Feb. 12, 2012 primary, from left to right; Maria Corina Machado, Diego Arria, Pablo Medina, Pablo Perez and Henrique Capriles. Venezuelans head to the polls Sunday to choose a single opposition candidate that will challenge President Hugo Chavez in October. Outmatched time and again at the polls by Chavez, Venezuelan's opposition leaders are trying a new strategy to unseat the populist leader this year, holding the nation's first presidential primary to choose the strongest challenger. (AP Photo, File)

Presidential opposition candidate Pablo Perez, flashes a thumbs up at supporters during a campaign rally in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday Feb. 9, 2011. In the run-up to the Feb. 12 primary, Perez looks like one of the favorites to face President Hugo Chavez in presidential election on Oct. 7. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

Presidential opposition candidate Pablo Perez embraces a supporter as she talks with him during a campaign rally in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday Feb. 9, 2011. In the run-up to the Feb. 12 primary, Perez looks to be one of the favorites to face President Hugo Chavez in the presidential election on Oct. 7. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

Presidential opposition candidate Pablo Perez delivers a speech at his campaign rally in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday Feb. 9, 2011. In the run-up to the Feb. 12th primary, Perez looks to be one of the favorites to face President Hugo Chavez in the presidential election on Oct. 7. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

Presidential opposition candidate Pablo Perez, center, raises his arms with supporters during a campaign rally in Caracas, Venezuela, Thursday Feb. 9, 2011. In the run-up to the Feb. 12 primary, Perez looks to be one of the favorites to face President Hugo Chavez in the presidential election on Oct. 7. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) ? With Venezuela's first-ever opposition primary set to begin, allies and adversaries of President Hugo Chavez are focused on one burning question: Will the winner have what is takes to defeat a shrewd and charismatic leader who thrives during election campaigns?

Opposition supporters seem less interested in the proposals put forth by candidates competing in Sunday's vote than their chances of defeating Chavez in October's looming presidential election.

The outcome of Sunday's vote will set the stage for what many are billing as the most anticipated presidential vote since Chavez's first triumph in 1998, and Venezuelans on both sides of the nation's political gap are eager to see who will emerge as the challenger.

"This could be the closest election in many years, it's the first time Chavez could lose," said Alfredo Hernandez, a burly 57-year-old auto mechanic drinking a cold beer at the entrance to a garage in Catia, part of gritty downtown Caracas. "That's why we are all so excited."

Hernandez said he plans to vote for the opposition front-runner, Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles.

For government foes, the primary results are vital to their efforts to unseat Chavez ? an event many have been desperately yearning for more than a decade, and appears to be a daunting task.

"I don't care who wins," snapped Gloria Muchacho, a 45-year-old housewife who hates when Chavez interrupts her soap operas with hours-long televised speeches that all channels are required to broadcast. "I just want them to get him out, he must go."

Chavez, however, has proved himself a tireless campaigner as he easily sailed to election victories in 1998, 2000 and 2006. As the election season heats up, Chavez has said he's itching for a fight.

During public events and marathon televised addresses, Chavez insists it doesn't matter who emerges as the opposition's candidate because he's confident none of his rivals are capable of beating him. He repeatedly taunts would-be challengers, portraying them as agents of Venezuela's wealthy elite and Washington.

"These candidates are the empire's candidates," Chavez told thousands of supporters at a rally this month in Catia, which is a government stronghold. "We are going to give the unpatriotic bourgeoisie a beating."

Many in Catia have benefited from Chavez's social programs, which the government says are improving living conditions for the country's poor majority.

"They aren't interested in helping the poor, they only want to get rid of Chavez," said Miriam Colmenares, a 57-year-old street vendor, of the opposition candidates. She said she has helped Chavez's ruling party organize voters for the looming Oct. 7 presidential vote and was handing out leaflets this past week to pedestrians in Catia's palm tree-dotted plaza. "Chavez cares about us, and we are going to defend him."

But Colmenares, like many "Chavistas," confesses she's fearful "El Comandante" could be in danger this year.

Capriles has narrowed the gap behind Chavez to single digits in recent polls and is leading the opposition pack with about 40 percent support. Zulia state Gov. Pablo Perez trails Capriles by about 10 percentage points in the opposition primary, with another three candidates garnering modest support.

Some analysts have said Capriles could see a boost from an endorsement by former candidate Leopoldo Lopez, who bowed out of the race last month.

Despite lingering differences, the opposition candidates, along with many of their supporters, will likely throw their support behind whoever the winner is, driven by the conviction that Chavez's challenger will need an active, unified opposition movement backing him, said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank.

"The opposition is more unified than it has been in many years," Shifter said. "To have a good chance of defeating Chavez, the losers in the primary election will not only have to unite behind a single candidate, but will have to do so enthusiastically and energetically."

Nonetheless, even some of Chavez's most fervent foes are skeptical a unified opposition movement will be enough to oust Chavez.

Wendy Arias, a 55-year-old secretary who works in the capital's upscale El Rosal business district, said Chavez may ride to victory solely because he remains popular among the poor ? his main constituency.

"I don't like to say it, and I don't understand why, but it's true the president is still popular with people in the slums," Arias said, sipping espresso in a cafe and chatting with co-workers about politics.

"And if the opposition starts infighting ahead of the vote, there's no chance of a victory," added Arias, who accuses Chavez of dangerously splitting this oil-rich country along class lines.

Her words prompted nods of agreement from friends at the table.

Chavez endears many Venezuelans with his folksy, humorous personality, and gained millions of backers by implementing social programs for the poor, building low-income housing, offering low-interest loans to cash-strapped farmers and confronting the United States ? a proven means of boosting nationalistic sentiment among citizens and the country's leftists.

But he's also given adversaries many reasons to loathe him: His government's expropriations of buildings, parking lots and farmland have angered many Venezuelans who claim private property rights have been violated. The president's failure to tackle rampant crime has angered relatives of tens of thousands of murder victims. Others accuse Chavez of wasting the wealth created from high world oil prices on populist programs and building his political support in the region, rather than helping the country develop.

And his crude manner of dealing with critics irks Venezuelans who recall the days when political opponents were seen as rivals rather than enemies.

"He doesn't care about Venezuelans, just those who are willing to vote for him," said Nancy Sanchez, a 34-year-old single mother whose husband started driving a taxi three years ago because cannot find a job as increasing numbers of businesses are shuttered.

Many Chavez supporters, however, argue Chavez is simply unbeatable.

"None of them have what it takes to defeat Chavez," said Rodrigo Mijares, a 34-year-old taxi driver from the capital's poor, crime-ridden San Agustin neighborhood. "None of them have appeal that Chavez uses to charms and captivate voters."

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2012-02-12-LT-Venezuela-Opposition-Primary/id-2849b5d25bfb4e7b8dcbb90e034b0319

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Sunday, February 12, 2012

Greece warns bailout rebels of unknown, dangerous path (Reuters)

ATHENS (Reuters) ? The Greek government told rebellious lawmakers on Saturday to back a deeply unpopular EU/IMF rescue in parliament or send the nation down "an unknown, dangerous path" to default and international economic isolation.

Conservative leader Antonis Samaras, who has attacked austerity policies for driving Greece ever deeper into recession, still told his party to back the 130 billion euro deal or be dropped as candidates in the next general election.

With voters deeply hostile to the bailout's tough conditions, former socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou admitted that backing austerity had cost him the premiership and even some of his friends, but the alternative was a collapse in living standards and further "unforeseeable consequences."

The coalition of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has a huge majority, which should ensure parliament approves on Sunday a package including a further 3.3 billion euros in budget cuts this year, needed to secure Greece's second bailout since 2010.

But six members of his cabinet have already resigned over the heavy pay, pension and job cuts which the European Union and International Monetary Fund are demanding as the price of the funds, which Greece needs by next month to avoid bankruptcy.

INCALCULABLE CONSEQUENCES

Officials hammered home the message that Greece's future in the euro was at stake.

"The consequences of disorderly default would be incalculable for the country - not just for the economy ... it will lead us onto an unknown, dangerous path," Deputy Finance Minister Filippos Sachinidis said.

In an interview with the newspaper Imerisia, he described the catastrophe he believes Greece would suffer if it failed to meet debt repayments of 14.5 billion euros due on March 20.

"Let's just ask ourselves what it would mean for the country to lose its banking system, to be cut off from imports of raw materials, pharmaceuticals, fuel, basic foodstuffs and technology," he said.

Late on Friday the cabinet approved the draft bailout bill and a plan to ease the state's huge debt burden which has deepened the nation's political and social crisis and brought thousands out on the streets in protest.

As a 48-hour protest strike went into its second day, about 50 Communist party activists draped two huge banners on the ramparts of the Acropolis on Saturday, reading: "Down with the dictatorship of the monopolies (and the) European Union."

About 7,000 demonstrators gathered in central Athens, police said, but there was no repeat of trouble on Friday when police fired teargas at protesters throwing petrol bombs and stones.

SAMARAS CRACKS THE WHIP

Members of the conservative New Democracy party, which has a big lead in opinion polls before elections expected as early as April, are likely to back the deal solidly.

Samaras still warned his party, the second biggest in parliament, against stepping out of line. "This is obviously an issue of party discipline," he told New Democracy lawmakers in parliament, warning anyone who opposed the bailout "will not be a candidate in the next election."

However, the smallest party in the coalition, the far-right LAOS, quit the government in protest at the package on Friday, ordering its four cabinet members to resign. Two members of the Socialist PASOK party have also left the cabinet.

Papandreou, who negotiated the first bailout before his government collapsed in November, acknowledged the huge pressure on any politician backing the second rescue.

"I've lost friends, my family suffered, I gave up my office, I was insulted, vilified, like no other politician ever was in this country," he told PASOK's parliamentary group.

"Still, all that is nothing compared with what our people will suffer if we fail to do the right thing... Despite all the anger we are feeling inside, we must persevere."

Party discipline is much weaker at PASOK, whose support has dived to eight percent in the latest opinion from the nearly 44 percent it commanded when Papandreou led it into power in 2009.

A WHIFF OF REBELLION

Despite the whiff of rebellion, analysts expect parliament to pass the package, which also includes a bond swap which will ease Greece's debt burden by cutting the value of private investors' bond holdings by 70 percent.

Some economists suggest that if Greece defaulted and left the euro zone, its new national currency would dive in value and allow the Greek economy to become internationally competitive.

But government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis dismissed this notion. "We'll have to reduce the deficit, regardless of whether we have the euro or not."

Euro zone finance ministers have told Greece that it must explain how 325 million euros ($430 million) out of this year's total budget cuts will be achieved before it agrees to bailout.

Bailout documents released on Friday left blank the amount of the rescue but even 130 billion euros may not be enough.

Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Saturday 15 billion euros more might be needed to rescue the country's banks, confirming estimates from EU officials.

The banks are up to their necks in Greek government debt, the value of which will be slashed under the bailout, and have suffered huge losses of deposits as Greeks have either shipped their savings abroad or stuffed them under the mattress.

EU EXASPERATION

The European Union and the IMF have been exasperated by a series of broken promises and weeks of disagreement over the bailout. They will not release the aid without clear commitments by the main party leaders that the reforms will be implemented, regardless of who wins the next elections.

The uncertainty has upset world financial markets, with stocks snapping a five-day winning streak on Friday and the euro tumbling.

The bill, approved by the cabinet along with hundreds of pages of accompanying documents, sets out reforms including a 22 percent cut in the minimum wage, pension cuts worth 300 million euros this year, as well as health and defense spending cuts.

"The government believes that sustained implementation of this policy program, complemented by debt restructuring, will put the public debt on a clear downward path," it says in a draft letter to EU and IMF chiefs, attached to the bill.

In the same letter, the government promises to speed up implementation of reforms in the labor, product and services markets, cut spending, and push through a privatization plan.

One of the attached documents, which spells out the reforms Greece will have to undertake in return for the aid, says the target of cutting the debt to "about" 120 percent of GDP by 2020 from about 160 percent now will be achieved.

(Writing by David Stamp)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/world/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20120211/wl_nm/us_greece

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Saturday, February 11, 2012

The Wonders of GPS on The way to Find Mobile Phone Position ...

To be aided on how to locate a cell phone position employing the technology of GPS, all you should have are pc, or laptop and GPS enabled handsets.

You?ll be able to create tracking devices in your houses, office, and cell phones. It can be less difficult now to download and make use of it in just a couple of minutes.
Software on The way to Find Mobile Mobile phone Position

Most software package today is user-friendly and simple to setup. These devices can allow you to a whole lot on the way to locate mobile phone position. They normally need no other additional hardware except to your mobile handset. Occasionally although, you should ask permission from the owner of the handset you want to find.

On the internet maps on The best way to Find Mobile Phone Position

Maps on the web can assist a good deal on the way to locate mobile phone position. All you should do is to register by means of their web pages, enter relevant details, after which you may be able to locate them. This GPS technology on how you can find mobile phone position is reasonably straightforward.

The best way to Find Mobile Phone Position via Handset Signals

Because all cellular phones work by way of keeping in touch using the nearest telecommunication towers, locating a phone position is easier. The tracking gadget will calculate the distance of a telephone for the nearest phone tower, the strength in the signal sent by the handset, and calculating the distances by a method called triangulation.

The only dilemma with this approach is the fact that the telephone you might be locating really should always be turned on. Otherwise, you?ll be able to calculate the signals that really should be received by the towers. If the cellphone isn?t turned on, you cannot use triangulation on the best way to find mobile phone position.

GSM and GPS Mobile technological innovation on The best way to Locate Mobile Cellphone Position

GSM mobile handsets are normally less costly than GPS enabled mobile phones. GSM or Global Program for Mobile Communications has the derivative of what we know because the 2G engineering on mobile handsets. It is the replacement for your analog phones. GSM phones rely on triangulation so you?ll be aided on how to locate mobile telephone position.

GSM phones can display you the radius in the location exactly where the handset may possibly be. Your locator accuracy will depend on the amount of telecom towers, the terrain, and also the weather is a handful of named elements. The best accuracy on how to locate a cell phone position is from 50 meters up to 100 meters.

GPS technologies is much more accurate than that of a GSM handset. GPS uses the latest technological innovation on how to track cell phone location. Consider your main objective once you get a GPS device. There is loads of tracking gadget which can be portable and easy to conceal.

But whenever you are on the way to locate mobile cellphone position, you can find software program you must set up in your GPS handset to be able to locate its area. GPS can send you coordinates, which you are able to use once you search by means of Google maps or Google Latitude. It?s quite accurate and useful on how you can locate cell phone position.

Source: http://pepperwood.info/the-wonders-of-gps-on-the-way-to-find-mobile-phone-position/

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